Search results for "Bayesian models"
showing 10 items of 18 documents
Evidence for spatiotemporal shift in demersal fishery management priority areas in the western Mediterranean
2022
14 pages, 10 figures, 2 tables, 1 appendix
Spatial Bayesian Modeling Applied to the Surveys of Xylella fastidiosa in Alicante (Spain) and Apulia (Italy)
2020
The plant-pathogenic bacterium Xylella fastidiosa was first reported in Europe in 2013, in the province of Lecce, Italy, where extensive areas were affected by the olive quick decline syndrome, caused by the subsp. pauca. In Alicante, Spain, almond leaf scorch, caused by X. fastidiosa subsp. multiplex, was detected in 2017. The effects of climatic and spatial factors on the geographic distribution of X. fastidiosa in these two infested regions in Europe were studied. The presence/absence data of X. fastidiosa in the official surveys were analyzed using Bayesian hierarchical models through the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) methodology. Climatic covariates were obtained from …
Application of a Bayesian Spatiotemporal Surveillance Method to NYC Syndromic Data
2014
Incorporating prior knowledge (e.g., the spatial distribution of zip codes and background population effects) into a model using Bayesian methods could potentially improve outbreak detection. We adapted a previously described Bayesian model-based spatiotemporal surveillance technique to daily respiratory syndrome counts in NYC Emergency Department data in 2009, the year of the H1N1 influenza pandemic. Citywide, 56 alarms were produced across 15 zip codes, all during days of elevated respiratory visits. Future work includes evaluating our choice of baseline length, considering other alarm thresholds, and conducting a formal evaluation of the method across five syndromes in NYC.
An adaptive probabilistic approach to goal-level imitation learning
2010
Imitation learning has been recognized as a promising technique to teach robots advanced skills. It is based on the idea that robots could learn new behaviors by observing and imitating the behaviors of other skilled actors. We propose an adaptive probabilistic graphical model which copes with three core issues of any imitative behavior: observation, representation and reproduction of skills. Our model, Growing Hierarchical Dynamic Bayesian Network (GHDBN), is hierarchical (i.e. able to characterize structured behaviors at different levels of abstraction), and growing (i.e. skills are learned or updated incrementally - and at each level of abstraction - every time a new observation sequence…
Habitat modeling for cetacean management: Spatial distribution in the southern Pelagos Sanctuary (Mediterranean Sea)
2017
International audience; Effective management and conservation of wild populations requires knowledge of their habitats, especially by mean of quantitative analyses of their spatial distributions. The Pelagos Sanctuary is a dedicated marine protected area for Mediterranean marine mammals covering an area of 90,000km2 in the north-western Mediterranean Sea between Italy, France and the Principate of Monaco. In the south of the Sanctuary, i.e. along the Sardinian coast, a range of diverse human activities (cities, industry, fishery, tourism) exerts several current ad potential threats to cetacean populations. In addition, marine mammals are recognized by the EU Marine Strategy Framework Direct…
Flexible Data Driven Inventory Management with Interactive Multiobjective Lot Size Optimization
2021
We study data-driven decision support and formalise a path from data to decision making. We focus on lot sizing in inventory management with stochastic demand and propose an interactive multi-objective optimisation approach. We forecast demand with a Bayesian model, which is based on sales data. After identifying relevant objectives relying on the demand model, we formulate an optimisation problem to determine lot sizes for multiple future time periods. Our approach combines different interactive multi-objective optimisation methods for finding the best balance among the objectives. For that, a decision maker with substance knowledge directs the solution process with one’s preference inform…
Temporal Binding in Multisensory and Motor-Sensory Contexts: Toward a Unified Model
2021
Our senses receive a manifold of sensory signals at any given moment in our daily lives. For a coherent and unified representation of information and precise motor control, our brain needs to temporally bind the signals emanating from a common causal event and segregate others. Traditionally, different mechanisms were proposed for the temporal binding phenomenon in multisensory and motor-sensory contexts. This paper reviews the literature on the temporal binding phenomenon in both multisensory and motor-sensory contexts and suggests future research directions for advancing the field. Moreover, by critically evaluating the recent literature, this paper suggests that common computational prin…
A Fatty Acid Based Bayesian Approach for Inferring Diet in Aquatic Consumers
2015
We modified the stable isotope mixing model MixSIR to infer primary producer contributions to consumer diets based on their fatty acid composition. To parameterize the algorithm, we generated a 'consumer-resource library' of FA signatures of Daphnia fed different algal diets, using 34 feeding trials representing diverse phytoplankton lineages. This library corresponds to the resource or producer file in classic Bayesian mixing models such as MixSIR or SIAR. Because this library is based on the FA profiles of zooplankton consuming known diets, and not the FA profiles of algae directly, trophic modification of consumer lipids is directly accounted for. To test the model, we simulated hypothet…
Small changes, big impacts: Geographic expansion in small-scale fisheries
2020
Abstract Small-scale fisheries are an important, yet neglected, millenarian activity that has been undergoing significant changes that threaten its future. Understanding how this activity is spatially distributed and the factors that drive its use of the marine space over time can shed some light on how fishing efforts and their impacts have moved over different parts of coastal marine ecosystems. This study investigated changes to the spatial distribution of small-scale fisheries along the Brazilian equatorial region between 1994 and 2014 and the factors, from ecological to socioeconomic, that influenced this shift. Bayesian hierarchical spatial models were used together with environmental…
Joint Estimation of Relative Risk for Dengue and Zika Infections, Colombia, 2015–2016
2019
We jointly estimated relative risk for dengue and Zika virus disease (Zika) in Colombia, establishing the spatial association between them at the department and city levels for October 2015–December 2016. Cases of dengue and Zika were allocated to the 87 municipalities of 1 department and the 293 census sections of 1 city in Colombia. We fitted 8 hierarchical Bayesian Poisson joint models of relative risk for dengue and Zika, including area- and disease-specific random effects accounting for several spatial patterns of disease risk (clustered or uncorrelated heterogeneity) within and between both diseases. Most of the dengue and Zika high-risk municipalities varied in their risk distributio…